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# The Browser Wars

<https://pxhere.com/en/photo/652221> <!-- .element: class="attribution" -->

note:
**Time Elapsed:** 13 min.

This is exactly what happened during 'The Browser Wars'.
Multiple times, actually.
When I was in college I did a talk on 'the browser wars'.
In this college talk I tried to predict what browser we would use ten years later in time.
So the talk was actually quite similar to this one.
Apart from the fact that my slides back then looked **very** different.

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<!-- .slide: data-background="img/background/the-browser-wars-2005.png" --->

note:
This was actually one of the slides I used.
It's in Dutch, but obviously that's not the worst thing.

It's a RETRO slide deck.

I mean, the obnoxious headers and footers.
Which were repeated on **every** slide. 
Disastrous, major waste of space.
 
Also: the background gradient. 
What is up with that?
Nobody uses that any more.

The page numbers  at the bottom.
Horrifying stuff!
Maybe slide deck designs are like fashion.
If we just wait for another fifteen years, they will be popular again.

Anyway, apart from being ugly, this slide also shows that the Internet Explorer browser family was VERY dominant in 2005.
Almost 90% of all Internet users used an IE browser.
Now in this college talk I predicted three things, of which two **actually really happened**.
These were my predictions:

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## In ten years time...

1. ...Internet Explorer would be surpassed as the top browser family;
2. ...Mozilla Firefox would surpass Internet Explorer;
3. ...Mozilla Firefox would be the top browser.

note:

## In ten years time...

1. ...Internet Explorer would be surpassed as the top browser family;
2. ...Mozilla Firefox would surpass Internet Explorer;
3. ...Mozilla Firefox would be the top browser.

---

## In ten years time...

1. ...Internet Explorer would be surpassed as the top browser family;
2. ...Mozilla Firefox would surpass Internet Explorer;
3. ~...Mozilla Firefox would be the top browser.~

note:
Just the last prediction didn't happen, the other two did!

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[https://www.bbntimes.com/en/global-economy/market-shares-for-browsers-and-platforms](https://www.bbntimes.com/en/global-economy/market-shares-for-browsers-and-platforms) <!-- .element: class="attribution" -->

note:
I didn't count on Google Chrome - a new browser - to take the top spot.
But see!
Internet Explorer WAS surpassed within ten years time.
And Firefox DID surpass IE for a few months in 2016.
OK, technically that did take 11 years, not 10.

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<https://tenor.com/view/youright-right-point-gif-9467383> <!-- .element: class="attribution" -->

note:
Still, I was right!
Sort of.
I correctly predicted that Internet Explorer would be surpassed by a new browser.

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## The handicap of a head start

<blockquote class="explanation">
    You will get a lot of attention.
</blockquote>

<small>Jan Romein, "The dialectics of progress", 1937</small>

<https://www.pexels.com/photo/battle-black-blur-board-game-260024> <!-- .element: class="attribution" -->

note:
Now I was quite confident this would happen, because of a mechanism that is called
"the law of the handicap of a head start".
(or in Dutch "de wet van de remmende voorsprong").
This term was coined by Dutch historian Jan Romein in his essay "The dialectics of progress" in 1937.

The law suggests that individuals or groups that start out ahead eventually are overtaken by others. 
In the terminology of the law, the head start, which is an advantage at first, subsequently becomes a handicap.
This phenomenon occurs when a society dedicates itself to certain standards and those standards change. 
Then it becomes harder for the leading group to adapt.

This is exactly what happened during the browser wars!
Society demanded tabbed browsing and Microsoft had a hard time adapting to that, which resulted in Firefox and Chrome taking over.
Just like in sports, it is a lot harder to stay on top, than it is to get there.

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## The handicap of a head start

<blockquote class="explanation">
    <code>prediction variable #4</code>
</blockquote>

<https://www.pexels.com/photo/photo-displays-person-holding-ball-with-reflection-of-horizon-940880> <!-- .element: class="attribution" -->

note:
So here's our final prediction variable.
It is hard to stay on top, hence "the handicap of a head start".
Eventually the dominant product will be replaced by a new one.
Netscape was replaced by Internet Explorer, which was replaced by Google Chrome.
And I can't think of a reason why it wouldn't happen again.

So let's return to the version control world now and see which products we need to investigate as aspiring successors of Git!